Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 2.314681 2.449633 2.596498 2.769849 2.971153 3.200579 3.486531
2025-09-14 2.113306 2.273732 2.455245 2.679549 2.955019 3.290938 3.747194
2025-09-21 2.010129 2.189569 2.398712 2.666770 3.011787 3.458714 4.118689
2025-09-28 1.913217 2.101494 2.325457 2.620045 3.012584 3.545571 4.389957
2025-10-05 1.879012 2.084111 2.334032 2.673282 3.145558 3.828298 5.025852
2025-10-12 1.860729 2.083423 2.361295 2.750757 3.318734 4.200234 5.959038
2025-10-19 1.810117 2.038203 2.326902 2.739639 3.359799 4.369889 6.592055
2025-10-26 1.771435 2.005594 2.306166 2.744474 3.423605 4.588897 7.470145
2025-11-02 1.714889 1.946971 2.247014 2.689066 3.385239 4.614529 7.875602
2025-11-09 1.676438 1.910208 2.215278 2.670887 3.404340 4.752253 8.730782
2025-11-16 1.642667 1.878072 2.187996 2.656897 3.428058 4.903711 9.816993
2025-11-23 1.610043 1.846108 2.159266 2.638434 3.441564 5.036587 11.054036
2025-11-30 1.589619 1.830631 2.154037 2.657518 3.526869 5.362101 14.218264
2025-12-07 1.539041 1.772751 2.086530 2.575428 3.420827 5.210982 13.972662
2025-12-14 1.513232 1.747673 2.064665 2.563942 3.443904 5.385615 17.138930
2025-12-21 1.479549 1.710839 2.024578 2.521190 3.404249 5.391584 18.966088
2025-12-28 1.474907 1.713473 2.041158 2.570081 3.544714 5.928399 42.574691
2026-01-04 1.476385 1.724416 2.070065 2.641001 3.739997 6.745612 NaN
2026-01-11 1.455813 1.703872 2.051486 2.630856 3.765809 7.023818 NaN
2026-01-18 1.440142 1.689726 2.041854 2.635284 3.823618 7.460757 NaN
2026-01-25 1.411048 1.655913 2.001567 2.584598 3.754164 7.352910 NaN
2026-02-01 1.391860 1.635719 1.981294 2.567945 3.760138 7.578151 NaN
2026-02-08 1.374490 1.617690 1.963727 2.555120 3.773589 7.851823 NaN